Background

For eyecare practices, understanding industry-wide trends is an essential part of planning for the future. Forecasting translates broad market performance into actionable insights at the practice level. By reviewing quarterly results across the industry, practice owners can see how patient demand, eyewear sales, contact lens usage, and exam volumes are shifting nationwide.

These benchmarks help practices evaluate their results in context—identifying whether changes reflect broader market forces or unique local dynamics. With this perspective, independent optometrists can make informed decisions about staffing, inventory, pricing, and marketing strategies while preparing for future opportunities and challenges. Forecasting bridges industry data and everyday management, supporting both clinical care and business growth.

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Methods

This analysis reviewed unit sales over the most recent nine quarters (Q3 2022 through Q3 2025) to develop a forecast covering the next five quarters (Q4 2025 through Q4 2026). Sales were tracked across four key categories—eye exams, contact lenses, ophthalmic lenses, and frames—using a representative sample of 2,250 eyecare practice locations across the United States from the GPN dataset.

Performance was measured as the year-over-year percentage change in unit sales for each quarter. To project future outcomes, we applied exponential smoothing, a statistical time-series technique that leverages historical patterns and seasonality to estimate likely trends. The results provide industry-level benchmarks that independent practices can use to evaluate their own performance and guide strategic planning.

The percentage change in units sold for the same quarter in the previous year is displayed, and the forecasted growth over the ensuing five quarters is predicted with upper and lower 75% confidence intervals.

Historic Results vs. Past Forecast (Q4 2024 – Q3 2025)

During the four quarters spanning Q4 2024 through Q3 2025, actual performance was compared with the prior forecast and its 75% confidence interval.

Overall, the year began with stronger-than-expected results across nearly all categories in Q4 2024, followed by moderate alignment to forecast ranges through mid-2025. By late 2025, most product lines had stabilized within or slightly above expectations, suggesting a gradual return to predictable seasonal patterns.

• Lenses delivered a stronger-than-expected start, with Q4 2024 unit growth of 1.6% versus a forecast of –1.5%, surpassing the upper confidence limit. Early 2025 saw softer but steady alignment, ending Q3 2025 near forecast at 0.4% growth.
• Contact lenses were the standout performer. Each quarter from Q4 2024 onward outpaced expectations, culminating in Q3 2025 growth of 0.7% against a projected –6.4%. This consistent overperformance indicates that earlier forecasts underestimated patient demand.
• Eye exams exceeded projections across most quarters, beginning with 2.9% growth versus a –0.6% forecast in Q4 2024. Q2 and Q3 2025 both outperformed expectations, suggesting robust patient recall and appointment consistency.
• Frames showed a balanced trend. After a strong rebound in Q4 2024 (1.2% vs. –2.1% forecast), the category stabilized through 2025, fluctuating slightly around forecasted levels.

Summary: The period demonstrated broad early outperformance followed by normalization. Contacts and Exams consistently exceeded expectations, while Lenses and Frames settled within forecast ranges—signaling a more balanced, predictable market as 2025 progressed.

Forecast Outlook (Q4 2025 – Q4 2026)

The forecast period from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026 indicates a transitional phase for the U.S. eyecare market. The sharp swings of prior years appear to be giving way to steadier, flatter trends. Across all four categories, growth projections remain modest, clustering between –4% and +3%.

While few signs of strong expansion are visible, the model suggests increasing stability and predictability—a plateau rather than a downturn.

Contact Lenses

Forecast begins slightly negative in Q4 ’25 at –0.93% (band –3.77% to 1.90%), improves through mid-2026 (Q1 ’26: 1.39%; Q2 ’26: 2.75%), then levels off (Q3 ’26: 0.68%) and dips again by Q4 ’26 (–0.93%). The model points to mid-year resilience supported by stable renewals, though tempered by pricing pressure and channel shifts.

Eye Exams

Projections hover near flat through early 2026 before softening later in the year. After mild gains in Q1–Q2 (up to 0.69%), Exams decline into negative territory by Q3–Q4 (around –3%). This suggests stable early-year activity followed by typical seasonal easing.

Frames

Frames remain under pressure across the horizon, averaging between –1.5% and –4.5% growth. The most pronounced declines appear mid-to-late 2026, reflecting discretionary spending constraints and retail competition.

Lenses

Lenses start slightly negative (–1.7% to –1.0%) and weaken through late 2026 (–3.9%), with narrowing confidence intervals that indicate consistent but muted demand shaped by replacement timing and material mix rather than volume expansion.

Overall Assessment:
The 2025–2026 outlook signals a steadying marketplace. Contact lenses show mid-year strength; Exams plateau before softening; Frames and Lenses remain stable but subdued. For eyecare providers, the emphasis should be on optimization rather than expansion—strengthening recall systems, refining product assortments, and focusing on operational efficiency.

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Practice Planning Implications

These results are forward-looking estimates derived from an exponential-smoothing time-series model trained on nine quarters of historical data. They incorporate seasonal and behavioral trends but exclude external shocks such as economic cycles, policy shifts, or major environmental events.

For planning purposes, eyecare practices should:

• Adjust for softness in frames and lenses by refining product mix, managing reorder timing, and optimizing margin strategies.
• Capitalize on exam volume stability to maintain recall consistency and patient retention.
• Leverage the contact lens rebound by reinforcing renewal programs and auto-ship options in mid-2026.
• Monitor results quarterly to align staffing, marketing, and purchasing strategies with emerging trends.

Wrap-Up

As the eyecare market enters a period of steadier performance, data-driven awareness becomes even more valuable. While broad expansion may be limited, practices that monitor their key performance drivers and adjust proactively can stay ahead of market fluctuations.

The forecast through 2026 reinforces a clear message: consistency rewards attentiveness. By tracking their own results against national benchmarks, independent providers can navigate a maturing market with confidence—optimizing operations, strengthening patient relationships, and positioning for sustainable growth.

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